143
FXUS64 KSHV 181858
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOW MUCH OF A CHANCE IS STILL IN FLUX AMONGST
THE SHORT TERM MODELS WITH ONE EVEN BETTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF OUR
OUTFLOW PUSH, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOON AGAIN.
- FALL BEGINS ON MONDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSISTION TO A
COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN WITH LONG TERM CONSENSUS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS UNFOLDING WITH CONVECTION A LITTLE
SOONER WITH INITIATION THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY. MORE OF THE
ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS PEPPERING OVER DEEP EAST TX, BUT THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS I-30 IN MORE INDICATIVE OF A PUSH
APPROACHING. AND INDEED, AIR PRESSURES ARE HIGHER IN OK WITH RAIN
COOLED AIR IN THE 60S AND 70S WHERE NW WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY.
CLOSER TO HOME WE ARE SW AND LIGHTER IN SPEEDS THROUGH OUR I-30
CORRIDOR WITH LOW TO UPPER 90S, PRIME CONDITIONS FOR GROWING
COVERAGE WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL, EVEN
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT IN SOME CASES AS OUTFLOWS
CONTRIBUTE.
ALOFT, THE NW FLOW REMAINS LIGHT NEAR 500MB, SO MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SAILING TO THE SE AND NOT SW AS OF LATE WITH
ANVILS ACTING AS SPINNAKERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE
ASSOCIATED HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE WEAKENING AND EASING AWAY TO
EAST WHILE THE TROUGHING OUT OVER THE PLAINS IS GEARING UP TO MAKE
A FOOTBALL MOVE. SO LOOK FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
HEATING TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERING AND CONTINUED
NOCTURNAL LIFE AS THE COOL POOL DRAWS NEAR OVERNIGHT. AS IS ALWAYS
THE CASE, ONCE WE LOOSE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND HEATING BEGINS
TOMORROW, WHERE WILL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PICK UP THE BATON WITH
NEW DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. OUR BEST CHANCE IS TOO
KEEP IT ROLLING AFTER SUNRISE LIKE THE GFS, BUT THE NAM GOES OUT
EARLY AND THEN LOOKS TO FAVOR BETTER COVERAGE FOR THE HEART OF OUR
AREA BY REDEVELOPING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WITH HEATING ON THE
BOUNDARY. EVENTUALLY NAM HAS A MIDDAY 1018MB SURFACE INCREASE IN
PRESSURE LIKE THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS COMING IN AT 1016MB OVER S AR
WHILE THE NAM IS EVEN 1020MB AT 9AM. HOPEFULLY THEY ARE BOTH RIGHT
IN TIMING AND WE AVOID GETTING OUTFLOWED LACKING COVERAGE. OUR
OLD FRIEND THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS LOOMING LARGER EACH DAY WE MISS
OUT. SATURDAY IS THE BEST LOOKING DAY THIS WEEKEND, BUT SUNDAY
WILL WORK TOO AS RAIN CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS OUR I-30
CORRIDOR UNDER NW FLOW.
EITHER WAY, THIS FALLISH NW FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DIG IN
A LITTLE DEEPER SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EACH PASSING DAY OF SUMMER
2025. MONDAY IS THE OFFICIAL DAY OR TRANSISTION TO AUTUMN PRETTY
MUCH MIDDAY AT 1:19 PM CDT. RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME OUR RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO PICK UP AREAWIDE, AND FOR EACH DAY TO FOLLOW OF THE NEW
SEASON. THE WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS IN
THE DAY ONE TONIGHT AND MORE SO IN THEIR DAY 2 FOR WHAT EVER WE
CAN MUSTER EARLY OR MIDDAY TOMORROW. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEIR
DAYS 4 AND 5 DIG ACROSS I-30 AND INTO MUCH OF NE TX AND EVEN NW LA
BY DAY 5. SO WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT AND HOPE FOR THE
BEST INTO TOMORROW AS THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE OVER
NW MCCURTAIN IN THEIR DAY 1 AND BACK TO GENERAL RISK FOR FRIDAY,
BUT DOWN ACROSS ALL OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. DAYS 4-8 REMAIN
UNCERTAIN FOR NOW ON INTENSITY, BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH BETTER FOR US OVERALL BY FALL. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING VCTS CONDITIONS TO MOST
TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER
19/02Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND 19/10Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ENDING 19/18Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS COULD BE NEEDED THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SOME EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 92 71 95 / 20 30 0 0
MLU 69 94 69 96 / 0 20 0 0
DEQ 66 88 66 91 / 30 50 0 10
TXK 70 91 69 94 / 20 40 0 0
ELD 67 91 65 94 / 20 40 0 10
TYR 71 89 68 91 / 20 40 0 0
GGG 70 91 68 92 / 20 40 0 0
LFK 70 94 68 94 / 10 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page