085
FXUS64 KSHV 021108
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. IN WAKE OF THE HIGH,
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESE ACROSS THE REGION. GULF MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH A PSEUDO
WEAK COOL FRONT/UPPER TROUGH OUT OF MISSISSIPPI INTO OUR FORECAST
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE EASTERLY WAVE AND FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
HELP IGNITE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL FIRST FORM ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES, THEN PUSH WNW INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ZONES, NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER SOME OF
THE STRONGER CONVECTION, BUT WE AREN'T EXPECTING ENOUGH PRECIP AT
THIS TIME TO DRASTICALLY IMPROVE THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S TODAY.
IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE, THE NEW ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, ADVECTING IN A DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIRMASS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE
US. AT THE SAME TIME, LONG-TERM PROGS CONTINUE HINT AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA GULF COASTS, WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY,
PUSHING THE GULF TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA. BUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS
FRONT WE COULD GET SOME FALL LIKE VIBES, AS LONG-TERM PROGS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT MUCH DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
FOR THE 02/012 TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING THE DAILY CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 02/19Z AT TERMINALS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-49, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING IN
THE EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST LIKELY IMPACTS REFLECTED IN NEW
TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL ADOPT AN EASTERLY COURSE AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 68 89 64 / 20 20 0 0
MLU 91 65 88 63 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 90 63 88 58 / 20 20 0 0
TXK 92 65 90 62 / 20 20 0 0
ELD 89 62 86 59 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 90 67 89 63 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 91 65 89 61 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 93 67 90 64 / 10 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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