664
FXUS64 KSHV 021902
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- GOOD CU FIELD WITH TOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH THE AXIS OF
BEST MOISTURE WORKING INTO S AR AND NE LA NOW. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK EVEN BETTER THAN EARLIER.
- LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHERE WE HAVE BEEN WITH DRY WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND STILL CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS OUR PARISHES BY
SUNDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION FROM THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM CANADA BRINGING AT AND BELOW AVERAGE READINGS TO
END THE LONG TERM PICTURE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
EXPANDED OUR AFTERNOON POPS INTO MUCH OF THE FOUR-STATE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
SOME LOWER 90S OBS ALREADY CALLED FOR BUMPING A COUPLE OF OUR
LARGER METRO SITES TO MID 90S FOR THIS MID AFTERNOON. PERHAPS
EVEN A LITTLE HOTTER THAN LATELY WITH BETTER MOISTURE MOVING IN
AND EVEN A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. THIS PUSH IS A DRY LOBE
MOVING ACROSS MS AS THE AIR MASS BUILDS ON THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE
WAKE OF THE CYCLONES. SOME DRIER 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ARE NOW
MIXING INTO THE DELTA REGION OF S AR AND NE LA RIGHT NOW. THE SPC
HAS A GENERAL RISK FOR THIS ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING. SO THIS
EXPLAINS THE PUSH SEEN IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
ALEXANDRIA UP TO NEAR EL DORADO. THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS I-49 AND INTO E TX BY THIS EVENING. MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL FADE SOON AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING.
SUNSET IS NOW FALLING THROUGH EARLY EVENING 6O'CLOCK HOUR WITH THE
TIME CHANGE NOW EXACTLY A MONTH AWAY.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE ON RAINFALL FOR
US, BUT AFTER SEVERAL MORE DAYS NEAR TO AROUND 90, SOME LOW TO MID
80S ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT THURSDAY. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT BETTER THAN 1030 MB WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND ARRIVE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY MIDWEEK. OUR
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT BACKING A BIT
MORE EACH DAY TO NE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MIX DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TAKE US BACK TO WHERE WE
SHOULD BE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR AND A SPREAD OF AFTERNOON CU AROUND 5KFT STARTS THE TAF PERIOD
AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CU FIELD HAS ONLY BEEN WITHIN THE LAST
HALF HOUR. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT TERMINAL IMPACTS APPEAR
LIMITED TO NONE AT ALL. BY THE EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WHATEVER THAT MAY BE, WILL DISSIPATE ALONG
WITH THE CU. SKC AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH SOME VERY SPOTTY LOW LAYING FG EXISTING AROUND PORTIONS OF
THE AIRSPACE. CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION. THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF
FRIDAY, VFR AND SKC SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER CU FIELD
CLOSER TO 18Z TOMORROW. TERMINAL WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN 5-10KT.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 90 65 88 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 65 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 63 88 59 85 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 65 90 61 88 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 62 87 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 67 89 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 65 89 61 87 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 67 91 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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