285
FXUS64 KSHV 031052
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A HUGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN ENE FLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FLOW
PUSHED A WEAK COOL FRONT/UPPER TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS PAST AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS PRECIP
WAS ALSO AIDED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST SOUTH
OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS EAST
TEXAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT TOMORROW, WHILE THE EASTERLY
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE NORTHEAST CONUS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS,
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EVENTUALLY OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME ENE, ADVECTING IN A DRIER AND LESS HUMID
AIRMASS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH MORNING LOWS ON SATURDAY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF NEXT WEEK, THE MID-
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL DIMINISH ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA.
CONCURRENTLY, LONG-TERM PROGS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF
EASTERLY WAVE, STILL PARKED JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST,
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN, THE CLOSED TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA, BRINGING A RETURN
IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ZONES, BUT I WOULDN'T BE
SHOCKED TO SEE RAIN CHANCES EXPAND NORTHWARD IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CONUS, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD PUSH THE CLOSED TROUGH OUT OF THE
REGION, RAIN CHANCES WOULD REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
/20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
BEGINNING THE MORNING WITH SKC ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE. SOME
PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED JUST EAST OF THE MLU TERMINAL AND SOME PATCHY
FOG NOTED ACROSS NE TX BUT NOT IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS THUS FAR.
LOOK FOR INCREASING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS MOST ALL ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LFK
TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME REMAINING CU ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TXK. ELD AND MLU
TERMINALS WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CU GROWTH. THAT CU
FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINAL THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 88 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 90 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 87 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 89 62 88 65 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 89 61 87 63 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 90 63 89 66 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
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