100
FXUS64 KSHV 031902
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH LOUISIANA SUNDAY, AND TO MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO BACKDOOR W ACROSS SRN AR/N LA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS EVIDENCED BY THE BACK EDGE OF THE N-S CU FIELD
NOTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE SHARP
GRADIENT NOTED IN THE SFC ISODROSOTHERMS IN THE MIDDAY SFC
ANALYSIS. IN FACT, THIS GRADIENT OF DRIER AIR HAS SERVED AS A WEAK
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED -SHRA JUST W OF
TOLEDO BEND DAM OVER UPPER SE TX, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING
WSW AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MIXES W THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DRY AIR INTRUSION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MODIFY FROM THE ESE LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN
MS/COASTAL SE LA BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TO THE W. THUS, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED CU FIELD OVER ERN MS/AL
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD W INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
AN UPWARD NUDGE IN DEWPOINTS EXPECTED (COMPARED TO WHAT WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON). THE PRESENCE OF SFC RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE OH VALLEY SW INTO ECNTRL TX WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AND GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, WILL
RESULT IN COMFORTABLE TEMPS AS THEY FALL MOSTLY FALL IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
UNFORTUNATELY, FALL REMAINS NO WHERE IN SIGHT AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD (AND POSSIBLY BEYOND). WHILE ANOTHER DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY, THE WWD DRIFT OF THE WEAK OPENING LOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER PW AIR TO EDGE BACK W INTO N LA SUNDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO TRACK NW
INTO THIS AREA. DID EXPAND UPON THE SMALLER AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THE NBM CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE OVER N LA GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER MORE OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS
THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERS. BY MIDWEEK, FLAT UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE SRN PLAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH ITS EWD EXTENT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS FROM THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IN TURN MAY SEND A
WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. BUT UNTIL THEN (IF IT
DOES AT ALL), ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST, AS WILL THE RETURN
TO THE DRY CONDITIONS.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, FALLING UNDER A LAYER OF AFTERNOON CU
AROUND 5KFT. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
THE AIRSPACE THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER NEAR LFK CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH SUNSET. THAT BEING SAID, THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE CU FIELD THROUGH SUNSET WITH SKC AND VFR
REMAINING OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE TERMINAL WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE EASTERLY, BETWEEN 5-10KT. CU FIELD SHOULD BE MINIMAL
TOMORROW BUT ELECTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FEW AROUND 5KFT THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 61 90 65 87 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 56 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 61 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 57 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 62 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 60 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 63 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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