646
FXUS64 KSHV 051137
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL
RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE MID-
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH, THAT HELP ADVECT DRIER AND SLIGHT COOLER
CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES. THESE RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST ZONES, AS THE GULF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THIS IS VERY WELCOME
NEWS, AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO OUR REGION. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN WITH
THIS BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ATTM. THAT
SHOULD HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. LOOK FOR A DEVELOPING CU
FIELD ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR EASTERN AIRSPACE SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND PERHAPS, EVEN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE KEPT VCTS
MENTION AT THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS ONLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND PREVAILED THOSE CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO VCSH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON. CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF VCSH AT SHV PRIOR TO 12Z MON AS WELL. DID
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF TXK AND TYR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 72 86 72 / 10 20 30 20
MLU 88 70 87 70 / 20 40 60 40
DEQ 86 66 82 66 / 0 10 30 20
TXK 89 69 84 69 / 10 10 30 20
ELD 87 66 82 67 / 10 20 50 30
TYR 89 68 87 69 / 0 0 20 10
GGG 88 67 87 68 / 0 10 20 20
LFK 90 69 90 69 / 10 10 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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