904
FXUS64 KSHV 051847
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
147 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
- WHILE A SLIGHT RESPITE FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY, NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING AREAWIDE FOR MID AND
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF S OF THE SE LA COAST HAS OPENED UP
INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH, WITH A BETTER REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH
NOTED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, WHERE THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS
CENTERED JUST S OF VERMILION BAY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
E SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MS/AL, WITH THE
WRAP-AROUND CU FIELD ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD WNW INTO CNTRL
AND NE LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE SCALED BACK THE EXTENT OF
WRAP-AROUND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS TROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT HERE SO FAR, ALTHOUGH THE GRADUAL TREND IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING/SPREADING FARTHER NNW ACROSS N LA THIS
EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE H850-700 REFLECTION OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH LIFTS INLAND FROM THE SE TX/S LA COASTS. PW'S
SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 1.5-1.8+" LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF N LA/SRN AR, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BETTER SUPPORT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE
APEX OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE PROGS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
WETTER WITH POPS MAINLY OVER ECNTRL LA/SRN AR TONIGHT/MONDAY, AND
SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH PLUS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE ERN SECTIONS
OF THE REGION (PRIMARILY NE LA/SE AR). HAVE EXPANDED UPON HIGH
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY AS THE
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS N THROUGH THE AREA.
THE INCREASE IN CIGS (AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE) WILL
RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TONIGHT/MONDAY, BUT
SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A WEAK SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM LIFTING NE OF THE AREA. THUS, THE MORNING
LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND RESULT IN STRONGER INSOLATION FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
CONFINED IN VC OF THE WEAK SFC FRONT. THIS BNDRY WON'T REALLY
PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FOR COOLER TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUT MAY SHAVE THEM
DOWN 2-3 DEGREES CLOSER TO THE DAILY NORMS ESPECIALLY AS POST-
FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT AND BE SLOW TO LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SFC RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM THE OH VALLEY
SW INTO ECNTRL TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FLAT RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE NRN GULF WILL EXPAND BACK W INTO TX FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N INTO THE
CNTRL AND LEE OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY/FRIDAY, AGAIN PROMOTING
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE (AND THE RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS) AS WELL
AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER DEVELOPING
TROUGHING NEAR AND E OF THE MS VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE ABLE TO
WEAKEN THE ERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO ENTER THE AREA. BUT UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS SHOWN, THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MONTH.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES
TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, BRINGING OVC AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO MSY. LOCALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED CU AND CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOME GRADUAL DISSIPATION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONGER RETURN
FLOW INTO MONDAY AS MVFR BKN/OVC CIGS AND VCSH/VCTS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. AVIATION RELATED IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE LA AND FAR EASTERN AR TERMINALS OF THE
AIRSPACE VIA SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE, CLOUD COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY ACROSS THE TX TERMINALS GIVEN THE VICINITY CONVECTIVE
REGIME. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE TERMINAL WINDS AS E/SE
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10KT ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 85 71 89 / 20 30 20 20
MLU 72 85 71 88 / 50 60 40 30
DEQ 67 81 66 86 / 10 30 20 30
TXK 70 82 68 88 / 20 40 20 30
ELD 69 80 67 85 / 30 60 40 40
TYR 68 86 68 89 / 0 10 10 20
GGG 69 85 68 89 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 69 89 69 90 / 10 20 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53
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