367
FXUS64 KSHV 060628
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
128 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS ZONES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA GULF COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN
CONSISTENT RETURNS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA TODAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA FORECAST
ZONES. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE
REMNANTS OF THE GULF LOW WILL GET ABSORB INTO THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES, ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND
MOST OF OUR ARKANSAS ZONES.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY, ADVECTING
IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
/20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO OUR
AIRSPACE FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING WITH IT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE TODAY. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PRECEED THIS PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MLU AND ELD TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING AT THE TXK/SHV AND LFK TERMINALS EVEN THROUGH CONVECTION
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY TODAY. DID NOT PREVAIL
CONVECTION AT THE TXK/SHV OR LFK TERMINALS, INSTEAD CHOOSING TO
GO WITH VCTS AT THESE SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
COULD BECOME IFR WITH IN AND OUT CONVECTION TODAY AT THE MLU AND
ELD TERMINALS WITH THESE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY STAYING PUT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 71 88 71 / 30 20 20 10
MLU 85 71 88 69 / 70 40 30 10
DEQ 83 66 85 64 / 30 20 30 10
TXK 83 69 87 67 / 40 20 30 10
ELD 81 66 84 65 / 60 30 40 10
TYR 87 68 88 68 / 10 10 20 10
GGG 86 68 88 67 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 90 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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