367
FXUS64 KSHV 060950
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
450 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS ZONES.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA GULF COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN
CONSISTENT RETURNS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA TODAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA FORECAST
ZONES. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE
REMNANTS OF THE GULF LOW WILL GET ABSORB INTO THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES, ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND
MOST OF OUR ARKANSAS ZONES.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY, ADVECTING
IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
/20/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
LOUISIANA GULF COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN
CONSISTENT RETURNS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA TODAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA FORECAST
ZONES. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE
REMNANTS OF THE GULF LOW WILL GET ABSORB INTO THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES, ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND
MOST OF OUR ARKANSAS ZONES.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY, ADVECTING
IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
/20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AND IN AND OUR VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RUSTON AND
MONROE, LOUISIANA LOCATIONS. AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MLU AND ELD TERMINALS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
VCTS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TXK/SHV AND LFK TERMINALS.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD POSSIBLY PUSH INTO THE TXK/SHV AND LFK
TERMINALS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CEILINGS
CLIMBING ABOVE OR SKIES SCATTERING OUT AT THESE LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY CONCERNS AT
THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS.
AFTER DARK TONIGHT, LOOK FOR VCSH STILL POSSIBLE AT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND/OR IFR CEILINGS AND LOW VSBYS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OUR OUR AIRSPACE AS
WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE MORNING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 71 88 71 / 30 20 20 10
MLU 85 71 88 69 / 70 40 30 10
DEQ 83 66 85 64 / 30 20 30 10
TXK 83 69 87 67 / 40 20 30 10
ELD 81 66 84 65 / 60 30 40 10
TYR 87 68 88 68 / 10 10 20 10
GGG 86 68 88 67 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 90 68 92 70 / 10 10 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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