066
FXUS64 KSHV 061905 RRA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL ONLY ADD UP TO <0.25 IN.
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE THE SOURCE OF ANY VARIATIONS AS
A RESULT AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP IN SPEED, USHERING IN EVEN DRIER AIR AND BRIEFLY
PUSHING THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL REACH A MAXIMUM OF
0.50IN IN A FEW AREAS WITH MOST RAIN FALLING TODAY AND TOMORROW.
/16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR AND EXTREME NRN LA, WITH THE EXISTING MVFR CIGS
S OF I-20 EXPECTED TO LIFT/BECOME VFR AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT.
SOME WRAP-AROUND -SHRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE CORE OF
THE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST W OF MLU, PRIMARILY AFFECTING
THE MLU/ELD TERMINALS. ISOLATED AREAS OF -RA CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
SHV AS WELL, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS OR VSBYS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. SOME RESIDUAL CU MAY LINGER ACROSS E TX/MUCH OF N LA
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS OVER SW AR SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER LATER
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ POSSIBLE AT THE SW AR TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
PATCHY FG/LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY/AFTER 09Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA
(SHV/MLU) WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO LOSE THE CIGS BY EARLY EVENING,
BEFORE LIFTING BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY. WHILE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA/EXTREME NE
TX, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY, WITH ANY CIGS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO SCARCE
TO INCLUDE IN LATER TAF'S ATTM. NNE OR VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB OR CALM AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 90 71 86 / 10 20 10 10
MLU 70 89 69 83 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 64 87 64 81 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 68 89 67 84 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 66 86 64 80 / 20 20 10 0
TYR 68 89 68 85 / 0 20 0 0
GGG 68 90 67 86 / 0 20 0 10
LFK 68 92 70 90 / 0 20 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...15
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