209
FXUS64 KSHV 070623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES.
- HUMID CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN BE CHALLENGING TO PREDICT, AS A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN THEIR EXPECTED MOVEMENT CAN RESULT IN DRASTIC
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. WELL, THAT WAS THE CASE ON YESTERDAY. NOT
ONLY DID THE LOW MOVE ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST OF ITS
FORECASTED LOCATION, IT ALSO MOVED NORTHWARD QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS, MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WE WERE
EXPECTING STAYED EAST OF THE REGION. THIS IS UNFORTUNATE, AS THIS
WAS LIKELY OUR BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
FOR TODAY, FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES, WHICH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED, AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED. THIS FOG
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AND EXPANSIVE CU FIELD.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA, BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 IN. THIS IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE AID OF NEAR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH WEAKNESS ALOFT TO IGNITE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, SO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES WERE INCLUDED IN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TODAY, IT WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP BRING A COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. A LESS
HUMID, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT WARNING TREND,
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE, THERE IS SOME MODEL HINT OF THESE DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS UP, THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER COULD RESULT IN THE EXPANSION OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY UP TO 7 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
MLU/SHV/ELD/TXK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS AND VSBYS
TO IMPROVE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 71 87 64 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 89 69 85 62 / 20 10 10 0
DEQ 88 65 81 57 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 90 68 84 60 / 20 20 0 0
ELD 86 65 82 57 / 20 20 0 0
TYR 89 68 87 62 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 90 67 87 62 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 92 69 90 66 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...05
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