144
FXUS64 KSHV 071841
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
141 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- TODAY'S MEAGER CHANCE OF RAIN (20%-30%) FROM ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE THE LAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY TOMORROW.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE THE SOURCE OF ANY SUBTLE
VARIATIONS IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST, ALIGNING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED ON THURSDAY, USHERING IN EVEN DRIER AIR AND BRIEFLY PUSHING
THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM INTO SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL REACH A
MAXIMUM OF 0.10IN IN A FEW AREAS WITH MOST RAIN FALLING TODAY.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RIDGING BUILDING BACK
WEST LATER NEXT WEEK, REINFORCING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS, WITH THE BURNING OFF AND DISSIPATION OF THIS
MORNING'S FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE DO NOT MERIT
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING AND WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH LINGERING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST TOMORROW AT MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 88 65 83 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 69 87 62 82 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 65 82 57 80 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 68 85 59 82 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 65 82 56 79 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 68 88 63 83 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 67 88 62 83 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 69 91 66 86 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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