302
FXUS64 KSHV 080451
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER AND DRIER
AIR IN ITS WAKE.
- THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED RECENTLY
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, NUDGING TEMPERATURES HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN AND MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION HAS MISSED OUT ON SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL YET AGAIN.
UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK ANY MORE PROMISING OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. THE ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
OUR RECENT WEATHER VERSUS UPCOMING TRENDS IS A SLIGHTLY MILDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE ONGOING FROPA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 80S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE MUCH MORE PLEASANT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL OFF INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATER THIS WEEK.
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BECOME
MORE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES IN
SIGHT THAT COULD BRING ABOUT ANY REAL CHANGE TO OUR STUBBORNLY
WARM AND DRY PATTERN. SO LOOK FOR FURTHER DEGRADATION IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRE DANGER AS
SOIL MOISTURE IS FURTHER DEPLETED IN THIS PROLONGED WARM AND DRY
FALL WEATHER PATTERN.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ATTM IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE TODAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THAT BOUNDARY
EARLY IN THE MORNING AT THE TXK/ELD AND MLU TERMINALS AND TIME-
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE HINTING AT MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EVEN AFTERNOON AT THE
TXK AND ELD TERMINALS. IF WE DO SEE THESE LOWER POST FRONTAL
CEILINGS TODAY, THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND/OR LIFT ABOUT MVFR
CATEGORIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK
FOR POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR
10KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 88 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 69 87 62 83 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 65 83 58 80 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 68 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 65 83 57 80 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 68 88 64 84 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 67 88 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 69 90 66 87 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page