146
FXUS64 KSHV 081026
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER AND DRIER
AIR IN ITS WAKE.
- THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED RECENTLY
WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, NUDGING TEMPERATURES HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN AND MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION HAS MISSED OUT ON SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL YET AGAIN.
UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK ANY MORE PROMISING OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. THE ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
OUR RECENT WEATHER VERSUS UPCOMING TRENDS IS A SLIGHTLY MILDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE ONGOING FROPA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 80S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE MUCH MORE PLEASANT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL OFF INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATER THIS WEEK.
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BECOME
MORE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES IN
SIGHT THAT COULD BRING ABOUT ANY REAL CHANGE TO OUR STUBBORNLY
WARM AND DRY PATTERN. SO LOOK FOR FURTHER DEGRADATION IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRE DANGER AS
SOIL MOISTURE IS FURTHER DEPLETED IN THIS PROLONGED WARM AND DRY
FALL WEATHER PATTERN.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ATTM IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE TODAY.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE HINTING AT MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EVEN AFTERNOON AT
THE TXK/ELD AND MLU TERMINALS. IF WE DO SEE THESE LOWER POST
FRONTAL CEILINGS TODAY, THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND/OR LIFT ABOUT
MVFR CATEGORIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOOK FOR POST FRONTAL NNE TO NE WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
NEAR 10KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 65 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 87 62 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 83 58 80 51 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 85 60 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 83 57 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 88 64 84 56 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 88 63 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 90 66 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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