954
FXUS64 KSHV 241744
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
UPPER-FLOW OVERNIGHT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN
THE ZONAL FLOW COULD PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE I-
30 CORRIDOR NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A LONG DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY, UPPER-LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENHANCING A
CLOSED LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
SWING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO EAST TEXAS AND WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARKLATEX ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER BURST
OF HEAVIER CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND POSSIBLY
SOUTH ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS. 2-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER
VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS . AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO THE HIGHER THREAT BEING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY THREAT OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REINFORCE COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR THE 24/18Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -TSRA/VCTS PASS THROUGH THE
AIRSPACE. KMLU ESPECIALLY AFTER 25/12Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 75 63 78 / 50 90 90 30
MLU 57 75 64 77 / 10 80 90 70
DEQ 56 67 56 72 / 70 90 80 40
TXK 60 71 61 75 / 60 90 80 30
ELD 56 69 59 74 / 30 90 90 60
TYR 64 74 61 76 / 90 100 80 20
GGG 62 74 60 76 / 70 90 80 20
LFK 64 77 63 80 / 60 90 90 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16
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