016
FXUS64 KSHV 241819
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS
EAST TEXAS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST. SEVERE WEATHER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
- SUNDAY WILL SEE AREAWIDE CLEARING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN FROM
ANOTHER FRONT NEXT TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARDS, THUS NOT ANTICIPATING
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT ISOLATED LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING INTO
THIS EVENING, MAKING FOR A BRIEF RESPITE IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
EVENT.
AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER INCHES FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, AND DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS- AS IT
HAS BEEN DOING FOR SEVERAL DAYS- THAT WE ARE IN FOR A VERY SOGGY
SATURDAY ACROSS OUR FOUR STATE REGION, BUT LEAVES ENOUGH VARIABLES
IN PLAY THAT EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND POSITION OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT AS CERTAIN AS WOULD BE PREFERRED AT THIS POINT.
IN AT NUTSHELL, THE LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A HALF ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30, TO BETWEEN AN INCH
AND A HALF AND UP TO THREE INCHES SOUTH AND EAST, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLY TOTALING FOUR OR MORE INCHES. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY STRETCH ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS FROM THE DAVY
CROCKETT NATIONAL FOREST TO TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY. THESE DETAILS ARE
BEST TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, AS MINOR SHIFTS IN RAINFALL AXES
CAN RESULT IN VASTLY DIFFERENT ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT IF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SEMISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY, IT COULD END UP DIVERTING MOISTURE MORE TO OUR SOUTH THAN
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE ADVERTISES.
WHEN ASSESSING HOW SERIOUS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR
TOMORROW, IT IS WORTH KEEPING IN MIND HOW DRY THE SOIL IS,
RESULTING FROM RECENT DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE ARKLATEX. WHERE FLOODING DEVELOPS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
HEAVILY ON RAINFALL RATES, AS WELL AS THE SET UP AND ORIENTATION
OF RAINFALL BAND MOVEMENT- THE HIGHER RISK BEING POSED BY
"TRAINING" RAINFALL THAT REPEATEDLY IMPACTS THE SAME LOCATIONS.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS LED TO THE DECISION TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHICH WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW, FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-82, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES CURRENTLY
OUTLINED SOUTH OF US-84, INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LUFKIN,
NACOGDOCHES, AND NATCHITOCHES. THE CHIEF HAZARD LOOKS TO TAKE THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
BY LATE SUNDAY, THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND'S ACTIVITY WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT AT LAST MAKES TRACKS AND ADVANCES EASTWARD,
OPENING UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS LOOKS TO LEAVE IN ITS WAKE A
PSEUDOZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WHICH THEN TILTS TO ESTABLISH
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER LOW TO
FORM, DEEPEN, AND SWING SOUTH OVER THE OZARKS. ACCORDINGLY, RAINFALL
CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY CONCLUSION TO
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MITIGATED
THIS WEEKEND BY THE RAINFALL AND FRONTAL PASSAGE, KEEPING IN THE 70S
THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR THE 24/18Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -TSRA/VCTS PASS THROUGH THE
AIRSPACE. KMLU ESPECIALLY AFTER 25/12Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 75 63 78 / 50 90 90 30
MLU 57 75 64 77 / 10 80 90 70
DEQ 56 67 56 72 / 70 90 80 40
TXK 60 71 61 75 / 60 90 80 30
ELD 56 69 59 74 / 30 90 90 60
TYR 64 74 61 76 / 90 100 80 20
GGG 62 74 60 76 / 70 90 80 20
LFK 64 77 63 80 / 60 90 90 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16
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