310
FXUS64 KSHV 250435
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS,
NORTH LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
- SUNDAY WILL SEE AREAWIDE CLEARING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN FROM
ANOTHER FRONT NEXT TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO HAS ALLOWED
FOR A LARGE LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LINE COULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A
DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS PORTION OF
THE LINE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX, A
GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE.
ON SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
BURST OF CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY DAYBREAK.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, AN AREA THAT COULD SEE A ROUND OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH THE SECOND
ROUND OF RAINFALL TOMORROW NIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLY DEEP EAST
TEXAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN SOUTH ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE FROM MIDDLE TO LATEWEEK.
/05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR AIRSPACE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ESE, IMPACTING MOST ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AND A LITTLE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX
WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THERE WITH THE
CURRENT COMPLEX ACROSS THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE BUT
DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD REGENERATE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND RAPIDLY MOVE INTO OUR AIRSPACE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS LIKELY SCENARIO
AS WELL IN THE 21Z-06Z TAF PERIOD WITH EITHER VCTS OR PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LIKELY MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE CONVECTION, TRENDING LOWER
TO NEAR IFR CEILINGS THE CLOSER WE GET TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 75 63 77 / 50 90 90 30
MLU 58 76 64 77 / 10 80 90 70
DEQ 56 66 57 71 / 70 90 80 40
TXK 60 70 61 74 / 50 90 90 40
ELD 56 69 59 74 / 20 90 90 60
TYR 65 74 61 75 / 90 100 80 10
GGG 63 74 60 76 / 80 100 80 20
LFK 65 78 63 80 / 70 100 90 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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