055
FXUS64 KSHV 251109
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS,
NORTH LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
- SUNDAY WILL SEE AREAWIDE CLEARING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN FROM
ANOTHER FRONT NEXT TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO HAS ALLOWED
FOR A LARGE LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LINE COULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A
DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS PORTION OF
THE LINE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX, A
GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE.
ON SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
BURST OF CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY DAYBREAK.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, AN AREA THAT COULD SEE A ROUND OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH THE SECOND
ROUND OF RAINFALL TOMORROW NIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLY DEEP EAST
TEXAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN SOUTH ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE FROM MIDDLE TO LATEWEEK.
/05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
DIDN'T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE IN COMPARISON
TO THE 06Z PACKAGE. ACCOUNTED FOR WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST TODAY. THEN WE AWAIT ROUND TWO WHICH SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST, ENCOMPASSING MOST
ALL OF OUR AIRSPACE (OR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF
IT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE THIS CONVECTION COMING TO
AN END ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AIRSPACE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS OUR
EASTERN MOST AIRSPACE BY 12Z SUN.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 63 77 59 / 90 90 30 10
MLU 76 64 77 59 / 80 90 70 20
DEQ 66 57 71 54 / 90 80 40 10
TXK 70 61 74 57 / 90 90 40 10
ELD 69 59 74 55 / 90 90 60 20
TYR 74 61 75 58 / 100 80 10 0
GGG 74 60 76 56 / 100 80 20 0
LFK 78 63 80 59 / 100 90 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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