335
FXUS64 KSHV 251822
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
122 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS,
NORTH LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
- SUNDAY WILL SEE AREAWIDE CLEARING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN FROM
ANOTHER FRONT NEXT TUESDAY, WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO HAS ALLOWED
FOR A LARGE LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LINE COULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS BY
MIDNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A
DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS PORTION OF
THE LINE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE ARKLATEX, A
GENERAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALLOWING FOR MAINLY A
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE.
ON SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
BURST OF CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY DAYBREAK.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
ACROSS MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS, AN AREA THAT COULD SEE A ROUND OF
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH THE SECOND
ROUND OF RAINFALL TOMORROW NIGHT. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. A
FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLY DEEP EAST
TEXAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN SOUTH ARKANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE FROM MIDDLE TO LATEWEEK.
/05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR THE 25/18Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS ONE ROUND OF -TSRA ENDS AND THE OTHER
BEGINS AFTER 25/21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS
NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 76 59 76 / 90 20 10 0
MLU 63 76 59 73 / 100 60 20 10
DEQ 56 70 52 71 / 80 40 10 0
TXK 60 72 55 73 / 80 40 10 0
ELD 58 72 54 70 / 90 50 10 10
TYR 60 75 57 77 / 80 10 0 0
GGG 58 76 55 76 / 90 10 0 0
LFK 61 78 56 81 / 90 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16
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