714
FXUS64 KSHV 260021
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- DAMAGING WIND, LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY POSE A THREAT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING.
- A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BY MID-WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AREA-
WIDE AND THE COOLEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CLEARLY PORTRAYS A PRONOUNCED
AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (OK/TX
PANHANDLE VICINITY), WITH A NOTABLE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND LENDING TO DIFLUENT FLOW ON ITS DOWNSTREAM
FLANK. THIS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. MEANWHILE, IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM, CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED IN THE MOST RECENT WPC
SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG THE RED RIVER CLOSE TO THE SW OK AND
NORTHERN TX BORDER. A COLD FRONT EXISTS TO THE S/SW OF THIS LOW
INTO CENTRAL AND WEST TX WHILE A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED TO ITS E/SE
FROM NE TX INTO WESTERN LA.
THIS MORNING, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES RESULTED FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH FAR E TX FROM CHEROKEE COUNTY UP INTO WOOD
COUNTY RECEIVING ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES. LUCKILY, DRY
SOILS/GROUNDS SOAKED UP MOST OF THIS RAIN, RESULTING IN LIMITED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL ASPECT OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN WAS THE GUSTY WIND IN ITS WAKE, OFTEN REFERRED
TO AS A WAKE LOW. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WINDS WERE
REPORTED FROM TYLER TO SHREVEPORT TO RUSTON/MONROE. BREEZY WINDS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE WE THEN TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY.
A COMBINATION OF THINGS WILL BEGIN HAPPENING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
LEND RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION INITIATION TO THE WEST
OF OUR CWA ACROSS CENTRAL TX. BUT FIRST IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MUCH LIKE WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING OFTENTIMES STABILIZES THE AIR IN ITS
WAKE. THERE THEN NEEDS TO BE THE PROPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIR IN THESE CASES. FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ENHANCING PVA
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD LINE UP NICELY WITH LIFT ALONG THE SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH THE ADDITIONAL HELP OF SUNBREAKS
AND SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL/GULF MOISTURE, CONVECTION INITIATION IS
EXPECTED TO OUR WEST AROUND 19-20Z. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA, LIKELY REACHING OUR DEEP
E TX COUNTIES BY VERY LATER AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. BY THIS
TIME, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH
RAISES CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GLANCING AT THE TYPICAL
INGREDIENTS, WITH A JET STREAK INVOLVED, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL
EXIST, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES POISED TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 45
KTS. COOLING AIR ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO LARGELY RANGE FROM 6-7C/KM WHICH IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL BUT DOES STILL RAISE ENOUGH
CONCERN FOR ITS THREAT. EFFECTIVE SRH ARE FAIRLY LACKLUSTER AROUND
100-150 M2/S2 BUT IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN MATERIALIZE WITHIN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF (SAY
SOUTH OF I-20) OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, LIKELY CONGEALING INTO A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINEAR
STORM MODE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BUT LIKELY STILL
SUFFICIENTLY PRESENT. SRH VALUES ARE NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL LIKELY PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND, HAIL, AND
POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT BEFORE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE OVERALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN, PERHAPS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AND TOWARDS THE
WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN AR. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT ENOUGH SUNBREAKS
WILL RESULT TO FOSTER ENOUGH MLCAPE TO GENERATE SOME SINGLE CELL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG/NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SEEING ENOUGH SHEAR AND SRH
TO STILL BE CONCERNED ABOUT A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA, SO
THOSE LOCATED WITHIN THIS GENERAL AREA SHOULD STILL BE VERY
WEATHER-AWARE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BY SUNDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ARKLAMISS REGION. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH ENOUGH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO
KEEP FOR SOME PESKY SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-20.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO CREEP INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, YIELDING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AMOUNT WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM-GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH, WITH THE
AIR LIKELY TO FEEL CHILLIER WITH A STIFF NORTH WIND. A DISTINCT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTANT FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE FOR WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THURSDAY AS A ~1025MB SETTLES
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FALL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S (ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO SEE A
HANDFUL OF READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SE AND SW AR-ESP
FRIDAY MORNING) AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING APPEAR PROMISING WITH COOLER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS NEXT SATURDAY AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF EASTERN US TROUGHING AND
WESTERN US RIDGING, EXPOSING THE AREA TO QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEMS FROM THE N/NW.
23
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, ROUND TWO IS UNDERWAY WITH SOME
CLUSTERS OF TS MOVG ENE AT 35KT, BUT ONLY GUSTING KTYR TO 21KT.
MORE WIND IS POSSIBLE EASTWARD WITH LATE DAY HEATING. COVERING
WITH TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE WAY. LIGHT WIND IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD LAY DOWN CIGS AND VSBY TO IFR/VLIFR
10-14Z WITH A SLOW LIFT BY LUNCH AND LIGHT NW WIND LATE IN THE
DAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 76 59 76 / 90 20 10 0
MLU 63 76 59 73 / 100 60 20 10
DEQ 56 70 52 71 / 80 40 10 0
TXK 60 72 55 73 / 80 40 10 0
ELD 58 72 54 70 / 90 50 10 10
TYR 60 75 57 77 / 80 10 0 0
GGG 58 76 55 76 / 90 10 0 0
LFK 61 78 56 81 / 90 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...24
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