375
FXUS64 KSHV 260615
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
- A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BY MID-WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AREA-
WIDE AND THE COOLEST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE RED RIVER OF NORTH-TEXAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER INTO THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER STRETCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AMD SOUTH ARKANSAS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE ARKLATEX FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE HRRR INDICATING THAT SOME STORMS
PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD SWING NORTHEAST, CLIPPING
GRANT, LA SALLE, AND CALDWELL PARISHES. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
MODIFIED BY CANCELING ALL OF THE EAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND SEVERAL
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS
THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 40S WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S.
WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AREAWIDE, COULD SEE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
COOLEST TEMP OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURE ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IN THE UPPER 30S WITH LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE 40S.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
WHILE THE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO RAPIDLY EXIT OUR EASTERN
AIRSPACE ATTM, IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD, WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AS WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
THIS IN SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. FOR THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE, DID NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH 1/4SM VSBYS AND VV CEILING
HEIGHTS BUT DID INTRODUCE 1SM VSBYS AND AT LEAST IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND WILL REASSESS WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. ANY LOW VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING BUT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT
LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 59 76 59 / 30 10 0 10
MLU 76 59 73 56 / 40 10 10 0
DEQ 70 52 71 53 / 60 20 0 20
TXK 72 55 73 56 / 50 10 0 10
ELD 72 54 70 52 / 60 20 10 0
TYR 75 57 77 59 / 20 10 0 10
GGG 76 55 76 57 / 20 0 0 10
LFK 78 56 81 59 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ003>006-011>014-
018>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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