718
FXUS64 KSHV 272014
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION, BUT MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
- EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE MORNING FOG FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION JUST BEFORE
LUNCH. NOW, THE STUBBORN STRATUS IS STARTING TO LIFT TOO, WITH
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING IN ITS PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
SOME LOWER 80 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. I THINK MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-30 IN SW ARKANSAS, WILL KEEP SOME STRATUS A
LITTLE LONGER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THEIR MAX
TEMPS AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY.
BY TONIGHT, A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS, DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
YIELD ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE THIS FOG WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-30 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ALL OF OUR
LOUISIANA FORECAST ZONES FOR TOMORROW. I THINK THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH SFC INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, ALONG
WITH SOME DEEP LAYER, TO YIELD A COUPLE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING IN OUR
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES, TO MID 60S IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AREAWIDE
ON WEDNESDAY, AS WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 20
MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED, MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND,
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN, BUT EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ISN'T QUICK TO CLEAR FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS TAF PERIOD. SEVERAL SITES REMAIN BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR WITH
LOW CEILINGS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO IMPACT KTXK BY 28/09Z. THIS RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND COVER THE REST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THESE SHOWERS, WITH
WESTERN SITES STARTING TO SEE 15+ KT GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 80 51 64 / 10 70 20 10
MLU 57 78 50 62 / 0 70 60 20
DEQ 54 65 44 57 / 60 90 20 20
TXK 59 71 48 60 / 30 90 20 10
ELD 53 71 45 58 / 10 90 40 30
TYR 63 78 49 62 / 10 40 10 0
GGG 60 79 48 63 / 10 60 10 0
LFK 61 84 50 65 / 0 60 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57
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