970
FXUS64 KSHV 291140
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES OUR MUCH ANTICIPATED
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE SE, EXTENDING FROM WRN MS
INTO SCNTRL LA INTO THE NW GULF. A TIGHT POST-FRONTAL SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF A DEEPENING CLOSED UPPER LOW NOTED OVER NRN
AR WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED
TO SINK INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION BY DAYBREAK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE CURRENT WRAP-AROUND CIGS OVER ERN KS/MO INTO
ERN OK S INTO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WHICH WILL SLOW
THE RATE OF INSOLATION GIVEN THE EXTENT OF COLD ADVECTION IN
PLACE. IN FACT, A PORTION OF THE NNW H850 WINDS OF 45-50KTS WILL
BEGIN MIXING DOWN TOWARDS THE SFC BY MID-MORNING, RESULTING IN
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/SW
AR/WRN LA. THUS, THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AREAWIDE
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BY/AFTER SUNSET. STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED WRAP-AROUND -SHRA ON THE W SIDE OF THE CLOSED
LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR, BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS E INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY MAY BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE INCREASING CIGS ALONG/S OF I-20, BEFORE TEMPS LEVEL
OFF. THESE CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY THIN AND SCATTER OUT
FROM W TO E DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE E, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TO KEEP THE AIR WELL ENOUGH MIXED TO
MAINTAIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE TN VALLEY CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO THE
APPALATIONS AND OH VALLEY THURSDAY, A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY, MAINTAINING THE COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD E INTO
THE REGION. WITH WINDS DECOUPLING BY SUNSET THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON IS EXPECTED AS READINGS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS
SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR (WHERE PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE), TO
THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON
HALLOWEEN FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY, ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
RETURN OF A LIGHT SERLY RETURN FLOW.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING E OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS IT BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS, FOUR
STATE REGION, N THROUGH THE OZARKS. WHILE ANY SRLY LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING MAY RESULT IN SOME SATURATION OF THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP
DOWN, RESULTING IN AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAINLY ALONG/S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. HOWEVER, ANY QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY OR NRN GULF. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND, AS A DRY NNW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY LATE WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SKC PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE TO BEGIN THE 12Z PACKAGE BUT
VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4-5KFT ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR ARE RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS AT LEAST THE TXK/SHV/ELD AND
MLU TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
TYR/GGG AND LFK TERMINALS, SHOULD JUST SEE A LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON CU FIELD. WHILE WE SHOULD LOSE THIS CLOUD COVER AT THE
SHV TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, CLOUDS MAY BE
MORE STUBBORN AT THE TXK/ELD AND MLU TERMINALS. THE BIGGER STORY
THAN THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH THE AID OF MIXING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...LOOK FOR SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
20-25KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-37KTS ACROSS MOST ALL TERMINALS
TODAY. THOSE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 46 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 60 46 65 42 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 54 41 63 37 / 20 0 0 0
TXK 58 44 64 42 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 57 43 63 38 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 62 44 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 62 43 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 66 44 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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