032
FXUS64 KSHV 301109
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- BELOW NORMAL WITH TRUE-FALL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, BEFORE A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUR CLOSED
LOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT NE INTO ERN TN, WITH THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TAILING SW INTO SE LA AND THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE, A
NW TO SE AXIS OF WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU CIGS PERSISTS FROM ERN OK
INTO SW AR/MUCH OF N LA, ALTHOUGH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR HAS
RESULTED IN SOME EROSION OF THE CIGS OVER CNTRL/SRN AR INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NE LA, WITH FURTHER EROSION OF THE CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE ERN ZONES, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE REMAINING CIGS FARTHER W WILL ERODE BY/AFTER DAYBREAK AS
ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A DAY
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX IN WAKE OF THE TN VALLEY SFC
LOW, WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING NOTED OVER W TX.
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS THE ERN TN CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE APPALATIONS TO
THE ERN SEABOARD THURSDAY, WITH THE SFC RIDGING TO OUR W DRIFTING
E INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BETTER
INSOLATION (ONCE THE REMAINING STRATOCU CIGS THIN OUT) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, BEFORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP AS THE SFC RIDGING
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THUS, THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AND THE FALL SEASON) IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR (WHERE PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE), TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGING LINGERS
OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE NW AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
BY AFTERNOON, AND AMPLIFIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS.
ELEVATED CIGS WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
AND WHILE A LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVER THE AREA
BY THIS TIME, THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY S OF
THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC FORCING
STILL REMAINS PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED TUESDAY. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NBM HAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY POPS NOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING, AND AM NOT BUYING THIS DRIER SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THUS, HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE COLUMN WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP S IN WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT, WHILE ALSO RETURNING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (MORE FALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS) TO THE AREA. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY AGAIN
CLOSE OFF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIFT S TO THE GULF COAST, UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E INTO THE SRN
PLAINS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH RISING HEIGHTS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE DISCERNIBLE WARMING TREND AS TEMPS RETURN
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE FLAT RIDGING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWS
FOR THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR 3FT HAS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. WE MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CU FIELD TODAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AIRSPACE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT
IT WE SEE IT, IT SHOULD BE WEAK AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AT OR NEAR 10KTS AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 43 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 65 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 64 37 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 66 41 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 64 38 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 66 42 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 66 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 69 42 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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