268
FXUS64 KSHV 301727
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- BELOW NORMAL WITH TRUE-FALL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, BEFORE A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OUR CLOSED
LOW HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT NE INTO ERN TN, WITH THE TRAILING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TAILING SW INTO SE LA AND THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE, A
NW TO SE AXIS OF WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU CIGS PERSISTS FROM ERN OK
INTO SW AR/MUCH OF N LA, ALTHOUGH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR HAS
RESULTED IN SOME EROSION OF THE CIGS OVER CNTRL/SRN AR INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NE LA, WITH FURTHER EROSION OF THE CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER THE ERN ZONES, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE REMAINING CIGS FARTHER W WILL ERODE BY/AFTER DAYBREAK AS
ADDITIONAL DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE COLUMN. AFTER A DAY
WITH VERY STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX IN WAKE OF THE TN VALLEY SFC
LOW, WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING NOTED OVER W TX.
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS THE ERN TN CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE APPALATIONS TO
THE ERN SEABOARD THURSDAY, WITH THE SFC RIDGING TO OUR W DRIFTING
E INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER DAY OF COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BETTER
INSOLATION (ONCE THE REMAINING STRATOCU CIGS THIN OUT) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, BEFORE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP AS THE SFC RIDGING
SETTLES OVERHEAD. THUS, THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
(AND THE FALL SEASON) IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW AR (WHERE PATCHY
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE), TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGING LINGERS
OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE NW AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
BY AFTERNOON, AND AMPLIFIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS.
ELEVATED CIGS WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
AND WHILE A LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMMENCE OVER THE AREA
BY THIS TIME, THE BETTER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY S OF
THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC FORCING
STILL REMAINS PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL RUNS HAD DEPICTED TUESDAY. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NBM HAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY POPS NOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING, AND AM NOT BUYING THIS DRIER SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THUS, HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE COLUMN WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP S IN WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT, WHILE ALSO RETURNING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (MORE FALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS) TO THE AREA. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY AGAIN
CLOSE OFF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIFT S TO THE GULF COAST, UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E INTO THE SRN
PLAINS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH RISING HEIGHTS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE DISCERNIBLE WARMING TREND AS TEMPS RETURN
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE FLAT RIDGING THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWS
FOR THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS, THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING
CU FIELD ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE, PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST AT THIS
HOUR, AT CIGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FT. OTHERWISE, SKC IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT, AND REMAINING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 70 49 67 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 42 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 37 67 45 61 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 42 69 48 64 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 39 67 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 44 69 49 67 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 41 70 47 67 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 42 73 45 71 / 0 0 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ050.
LA...NONE.
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
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