423
FXUS64 KSHV 031846
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEW
WORK WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
THIS WEEK WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WE
GET FURTHER INTO FALL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS JOINING INCREASING
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEK. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX, WITH AREAS REACHING
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH. AS SUCH, THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
STAY BREEZIER THAN NORMAL, BUT NOTHING HITTING PRODUCT CRITERIA IS
EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THIS WEEK DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND
GENERAL LACK OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AIRMASS. HOWEVER, A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, WITH MORE RECENT MODEL
RUNS SHIFTING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER EAST. THIS WOULD ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP A BIT IN THIS
REGARD BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. ON THE
PLUS SIDE, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
/57/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
FOR THE 03/18Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-8 MPH. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 47 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 69 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 71 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 73 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 69 42 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 74 47 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 74 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 43 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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