611
FXUS64 KSHV 041121
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NOT ALL OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
THE LATE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING ANCHORED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN LA, BENEATH EXPANSIVE FLAT RIDGING
ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
DESPITE THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, 05Z TEMPS ARE RUNNING SOME
3-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, INDICATIVE OF THE WARMING
TREND UNDERWAY. THUS, TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD
AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS MORE OF
A SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS E INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE SE CONUS.
AFTER OBSERVING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED TO
FLATTEN FURTHER AND BE NUDGED FARTHER S ALONG THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE NRN GULF BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT BUILDS S IN WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
TRAVERSING THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREAS.
WITH THE SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COME A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RH'S,
WHICH WILL BE MOST NOTABLY OBSERVED BY WEDNESDAY AS SOME PATCHY
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E
TX INTO CNTRL/S LA. WHILE THIS SHOULD MOSTLY MIX OUT LATER IN THE
MORNING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR A
WEAK DIURNAL CU FIELD THURSDAY AS 60+ DEGREES DEWPOINTS RETURN TO
THE REGION. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL USHER A WEAK SFC
FRONT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW AND FORCING NEARLY NON-EXISTENT, AND THUS, DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE NEXT AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL REINFORCE A STRONGER COLD FRONT SE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, RETURNING COOLER/DRIER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE PROGS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DRIER
WITH THIS FROPA, AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
MAY OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION BY NEXT
MONDAY MORNING, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES AS IT SURGES S AS TO WHETHER THIS OCCURS OR NOT.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FOR THE 04/12Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO UP TO 7 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTIONS OF TXK/TYR WHICH MAY REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 6 KNOTS.
/05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 74 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 45 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 77 51 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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