452
FXUS64 KSHV 052331
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR, POTENTIALLY BEING THE FIRST FREEZE
FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS.
- ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
/26/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH,
WITH PSEUDOZONAL FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BEFORE A TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE ONLY CHANCES OF
RAIN BEING LOCATED IN OUR SOUTHEASTERNMOST ZONES, PARTICULARLY
LASALLE PARISH, THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE MEAGER AND LIMITED
POPS ARE THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AHEAD. SUFFICE TO SAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
WEATHER STORY FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE FRONT WHICH CLOSES OUT THIS WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED AND CONSEQUENTIAL TROUGH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TAKES SHAPE, UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY AS THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH PLUNGES SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL SEE US SWING DRAMATICALLY FROM HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE OUR FIRST ARCTIC AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF I-20, FALLING BELOW FREEZING TO THE NORTH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURE VALUES, BUT
THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE, SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND USHERING IN A GRADUAL WARM UP BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR THE 06/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES, HOWEVER, CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL BRING A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
TO AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. AS SUCH, I HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 79 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 78 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 50 77 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 78 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 75 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 57 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 53 79 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 55 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33
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