381
FXUS64 KSHV 060944
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
344 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE
IS EXPECTED.
- THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80'S EXPECTED ALL THREE DAYS.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH ODDS
INCREASING THAT MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES SEE LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
BASED ON RECENT NIGHT FOG SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, WENT AHEAD AND ADDED CHEROKEE, PANOLA, AND RUSK
COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITY VALUES TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE ACROSS AREAS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY. /05/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
ANOTHER QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
FOLLOWING A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON AS HIGHS APPROACHED AND EVEN
EXCEEDED 80 DEG F. IT WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT THEME HEADING
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON.
BEFORE WE GET THERE THOUGH, DENSE FOG WILL BE THE WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITY WILL COVER A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF A
MILE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS EVENING, AND IS SET TO
GO INTO EFFECT AT 3 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT AREAS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY ZONE, MEANING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DENSE FOG, BUT THE CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY BRINGING THE
ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH AT THIS TIME. IF THIS CHANGES, AN EXPANSION
IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE MADE. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE ADVISORY IS SET
TO BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY. HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF THROUGH MID
MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL SURFACE VORTICITY
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A COMMON THEME IN THAT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES APPROACHING THE FA WILL EITHER STALL OUT, WASH OUT
ENTIRELY OR NOT REACH THE REGION AT ALL. AT THE SAME TIME,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA
WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN CHANCES COMPLETELY AS MOISTURE DISPLACEMENT
AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HIGHLIGHTING THE
ARKLAMISS VICINITY AND AREAS EAST.
THE REAL WEATHER STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME OF
OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS A SHOT OF COLD AIR
RACES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AM. BASE LONG RANGE
NBM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW AND MID
30'S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AM, WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR TUESDAY
AM. FOR NOW, MONDAY AM LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE TWO NIGHTS,
AND SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE AREA CLIMATE SITES MAY
SEE THEIR FIRST CHANCE AT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SEASON. THOUGH RAIN WOULD BE WELCOMED WITH THE LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE KNOW THAT THESE STRONGER FRONTS CAN INCREASE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE DRY, AND NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
53
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR THE 06/06Z TAF UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NON-TAF SITES
ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOWER VISIBILITY IN SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND DEEP EAST TEXAS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT HAS BEEN
DROPPING SO FAR HAS BEEN KELD. THAT BEING SAID, I THINK WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF SUCH FOR ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITY WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES AND THE TERMINALS I
THINK WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY THIS ARE KMLU, KELD, AND KLFK. THE
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND THINGS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO SKC VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10
KTS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 63 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 80 60 83 61 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 77 56 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 81 61 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 57 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 61 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 60 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 81 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ010-011-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ149>153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
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