711
FXUS64 KSHV 061632
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE
IS EXPECTED.
- THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80'S EXPECTED ALL THREE DAYS.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH ODDS
INCREASING THAT MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES SEE LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND HAVE NOW MADE IT
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH BOTH LONGVIEW AND SHREVEPORT ASOS SITES
REPORTING RAPIDLY REDUCING VISIBILITY VALUES. THUS, SENT OUT A
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ONGOING ADVISORY. /05/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
ANOTHER QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
FOLLOWING A RATHER WARM AFTERNOON AS HIGHS APPROACHED AND EVEN
EXCEEDED 80 DEG F. IT WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT THEME HEADING
INTO THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON.
BEFORE WE GET THERE THOUGH, DENSE FOG WILL BE THE WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITY WILL COVER A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF A
MILE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS EVENING, AND IS SET TO
GO INTO EFFECT AT 3 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT AREAS NORTH OF THE ADVISORY ZONE, MEANING ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG, AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DENSE FOG, BUT THE CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY BRINGING THE
ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH AT THIS TIME. IF THIS CHANGES, AN EXPANSION
IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE MADE. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE ADVISORY IS SET
TO BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY. HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FOG BURNING OFF THROUGH MID
MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL SURFACE VORTICITY
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A COMMON THEME IN THAT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES APPROACHING THE FA WILL EITHER STALL OUT, WASH OUT
ENTIRELY OR NOT REACH THE REGION AT ALL. AT THE SAME TIME,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA
WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN CHANCES COMPLETELY AS MOISTURE DISPLACEMENT
AND SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HIGHLIGHTING THE
ARKLAMISS VICINITY AND AREAS EAST.
THE REAL WEATHER STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME OF
OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS A SHOT OF COLD AIR
RACES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AM. BASE LONG RANGE
NBM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW AND MID
30'S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AM, WITH SIMILAR LOWS FOR TUESDAY
AM. FOR NOW, MONDAY AM LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE TWO NIGHTS,
AND SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE AREA CLIMATE SITES MAY
SEE THEIR FIRST CHANCE AT TEMPS NEAR FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SEASON. THOUGH RAIN WOULD BE WELCOMED WITH THE LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE KNOW THAT THESE STRONGER FRONTS CAN INCREASE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AT TIMES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE DRY, AND NO SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
53
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AFTER QUITE A BIT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING, THE SUN HAS BURNED OFF THE FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS ARE JUST ABOUT GONE SUCH THAT WE SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. WE SHOULD KEEP
THOSE CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE WE SHOULD SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AS WELL. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH WIND
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE
BUT THE LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
TAIL END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE GIVEN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. KEPT MVFR CEILINGS
AREAWIDE THROUGH 18Z ON FRIDAY THOUGH THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAST WE SEE THESE CEILINGS RISE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 60 83 61 84 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 56 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 61 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 57 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 61 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 60 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 60 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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