052
FXUS64 KSHV 062342
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
542 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR, LIKELY BEING THE FIRST FREEZE
FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING.
- ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN STORIES IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE FOG AND
FREEZING TEMPS, WITH ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND JUST MAYBE
A DASH OF RAINFALL FOR SOME ZONES THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS LESSENED TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT,
LARGELY DUE TO WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN MORE SUSTAINED, PREVENTING AS
WIDESPREAD CALMING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND RECENT OVERPERFORMANCE COMPARED TO GUIDANCE HAVE
PROMPTED INCLUDING PATCHY FOG FOR MANY OF THE SAME IMPACTED ZONES
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX. ANY IMPACTS LOOK
TO BEGIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND BURN OFF QUICKLY BY MIDMORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE DEFINED BY WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THIS WARM PATTERN WILL BE DRAMATICALLY AND SWIFTLY ENDED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SATURDAY, A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ARKLATEX, ADVECTING NOT ONLY COLDER BUT DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THIS
AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF, ARE INDICATING JUST ENOUGH OF A PUSH OF
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING TO MERIT LOWER END POPS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL NOT BE TOO DRAMATIC, SEEING MORE 40S NORTH
BUT STILL 50S SOUTH. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND VERY
LITTLE, ONLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE COMBINED WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
THE MAIN EVENT, SUCH AS IT IS, OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WILL BE THE
NEAR- AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHICH INVADE THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP FREEZING AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH ZONES SOUTH IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S, FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF UPPER 20S NORTH
AND LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE, SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AND USHERING IN
A GRADUAL WARM UP BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FOR THE 07/00Z TAF UPDATE...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS
MOMENT, WE COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CIGS AND VISIBILITY AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TERMINALS THAT WILL BRING SOME
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE AS DENSE
AS WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, SO I THINK THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2-3SM AS TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD AND
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 82 61 84 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 56 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 61 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 58 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 61 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 60 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 61 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33
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