453
FXUS64 KSHV 071630
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE 70'S
AND 80'S.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
- A SURGE OF COLDER AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR NEAR TO
SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS WORKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS THE
SOUTH, A ROBUST LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE PRESENCE OF
THE CLOUDS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WIND FORECAST
THAT CALLS FOR THE WIND TO STICK AROUND, SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IMPACTS. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE
WON'T BE INSTANCES OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION, IT
JUST MEANS THAT THE ODDS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE OBSERVATIONS SIMILAR
TO EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LOWER.
TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS A
SPREAD OF UPPER 70'S AND LOW TO MID 80'S ARE EXPECTED. IT WON'T BE
UNTIL A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES INTRODUCES A ROBUST AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL SINK DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR REFERENCE, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH
IN SHREVEPORT ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES
COOLER. THIS GOES TO SHOW JUST HOW STRONG THIS AIRMASS IS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AIRMASS AND PARTNERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20'S AND LOW AND MID 30'S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES TO GET A CRACK AT THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM AS THE MAIN BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, BUT THE EVENING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TO OUR EAST, THUS KEEPING THE HIGHER
POPS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
NOW, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN PROSPECTS LOOK DISAPPOINTING IN THE LONG
TERM. THAT BEING SAID, AND ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR
TO START THE WEEK, ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING FOLLOWS THE DEEP
TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO STAIR-STEP FROM THE MID 60'S INTO
THE MID 70'S BY THE TIME WE HIT NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
53
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS MOST ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS BUT THOSE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUING LIFTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND/OR SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND WILL BASICALLY WASHOUT ACROSS OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND A
RETURN TO LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE,
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE AND ALSO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SC AR, PERHAPS IMPACTING THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 81 61 83 54 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 77 48 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 79 55 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 54 79 49 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 81 56 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 81 56 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 84 59 84 54 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...13
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