363
FXUS64 KSHV 130603
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
AND SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES IN ADVANCE OF MUCH COLDER, FRIGID AIR.
- THAT COLDER, FRIGID AIR ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY NEAR FREEZING
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
HARD FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST AND/OR EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR REGION WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX, N LA AND SC AR IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH THAT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SAT MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
SEEING 2-3KFT CEILINGS ACROSS THIS AREA CURRENTLY AND THAT MAY
TEND TO KEEP THE FOG RATHER PATCHY IN NATURE BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ACROSS THESE AREAS AND
THAT POTENTIAL CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EL DORADO TO
SHREVEPORT TO TYLER, TEXAS.
ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF AS
WE GO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. CANNOT
RULE OUT A CLAP OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE BIG COOL DOWN
THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES. THIS COLDER AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FUNNELING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS.
COMBINE THOSE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND WIND CHILLS MAY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS SC AR AND NE LA. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVHD AND THAT IS WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY DROP WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN THIRD WITH WIDESPREAD
20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION, BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER SEASON.
THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG AS OUR REGION WILL ONLY BE SKIRTED
BY THIS AIRMASS. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES BUT GOOD SOUTHERLY RETURN BY TUESDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S AREAWIDE. THE NBM HELD ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES WED INTO THU AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS OUR REGION COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT
THIS KIND OF PRECIPITATION BUT NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMUP
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S LIKELY
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR GOING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT,
IT ALREADY HAS TANKED VSBY FOR KELD WITH COOLER TEMPS SEEPING
SOUTHWARD. LOOKING FOR THIS VLIFR/IFR TO SETTLE IN THE BACKDOOR
MOVING SW INTO OTHER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY WITH STRONG ARCTIC FROPA THIS TIME TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. E/NE WIND 5KT FOR MUCH OF THIS CYCLE AND 10-20KT FROM
NE OVERNIGHT SAT. INTO EARLY SUN. SKIES WILL SCOUR WITH DEEPENING
COLD AIR TO END THE WKND. VERY COLD FREEZE BY MONDAY 12Z. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 39 45 25/ 20 40 0 0
MLU 62 34 40 21/ 20 40 0 0
DEQ 57 30 42 18/ 10 0 0 0
TXK 59 34 42 22/ 10 10 0 0
ELD 56 29 37 17/ 20 20 0 0
TYR 68 41 48 26/ 20 30 0 0
GGG 68 39 47 23/ 20 40 0 0
LFK 74 45 54 24/ 30 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24
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