946
FXUS64 KSHV 131709
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- LINGERING LATE MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY AND SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES IN ADVANCE OF MUCH COLDER, FRIGID AIR.
- THAT COLDER, FRIGID AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO LINGER THROUGH
TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MORNING FOG WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO
INCREASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. COULD SEE POST-FRONTAL
ELEVATED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AREAWIDE. BY DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO TO BE BE DRIVEN SOUTH WITH THE FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME NEAR CALM ON SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS MITIGATING WIND
CHILL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, OVERALL AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARKLATEX. FROM 10 TO 15 HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
IN TERMS OF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WIND SPEED VALUES OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 DEGREES
ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES TO
DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A BROAD WEAK UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SEMI-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR THE 13/12Z TAF UPDATE...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE SEEING MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITY, THERE ARE SOME IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
FILTERING IN AT TIMES. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING AFTER 13/15Z
AND CIGS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 38 45 25 / 20 40 0 0
MLU 63 33 40 21 / 20 50 0 0
DEQ 57 29 42 20 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 59 33 42 22 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 57 28 37 18 / 20 30 0 0
TYR 69 40 48 27 / 10 30 0 0
GGG 69 39 47 24 / 20 40 0 0
LFK 74 44 53 26 / 30 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page