855
FXUS64 KSHV 150527
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1127 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THE ARK-LA-TEX (SO
FAR) WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING MILDER CONDITIONS BACK FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.
WITH TROUGHING UNDERNEATH PRODUCING THE MAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FAVORS A TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE
EMBEDDED TROUGHING ARRIVES BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MEAGER PRECIPITATION TOTALS AMOUNTING TO MAYBE 0.10 INCHES (30-40%
PROBABILITY). UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 20S WITH SOME UPPER 10S, NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS OF THE PREVIOUS HARD FREEZE CRITERION, BUT STILL COLD
ENOUGH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR PETS, PLANTS, PIPES AND PEOPLE
OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP PAST NORMAL (MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS IN THE 60S/40S), REACHING THE LOWER 70S AND MID 50S BY
NEXT WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MILDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MONTH. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
CALMING WINDS AND SKC WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT CIRRUS MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION AT
TIMES BUT EVERYTHING SHOULD STAY SKC UNTIL ANOTHER CLOUD DECK
MOVES INTO WESTERN AIRSPACE JUST AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 44 25 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 21 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 20 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 41 22 47 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 18 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 26 50 37 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 45 24 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 25 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57
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