467
FXUS64 KSHV 151135
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
535 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THE ARK-LA-TEX (SO
FAR) WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING MILDER CONDITIONS BACK FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.
WITH TROUGHING UNDERNEATH PRODUCING THE MAIN CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FAVORS A TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHILE
EMBEDDED TROUGHING ARRIVES BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MEAGER PRECIPITATION TOTALS AMOUNTING TO MAYBE 0.10 INCHES (30-40%
PROBABILITY). UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER 20S WITH SOME UPPER 10S, NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZE
WARNINGS OF THE PREVIOUS HARD FREEZE CRITERION, BUT STILL COLD
ENOUGH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR PETS, PLANTS, PIPES AND PEOPLE
OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP PAST NORMAL (MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS IN THE 60S/40S), REACHING THE LOWER 70S AND MID 50S BY
NEXT WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MILDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MONTH. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF UPDATE...SKC CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE DO HAVE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THAT COULD START TO MOVE INTO OUR EAST TEXAS
TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10K FEET WHEN THEY GET TO OUR AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 49 33 58 48 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 44 27 54 42 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 45 27 54 39 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 47 32 55 45 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 44 25 52 39 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 50 37 59 50 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 49 33 58 47 / 0 0 0 20
LFK 52 32 59 48 / 0 0 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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