887
FXUS64 KSHV 151820
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1220 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
- NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TAKING HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THURSDAY.
- RAINFALL RETURNS LATE TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION OF THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH USHERED IN THIS MORNING'S COLD
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO
TAKE ITS PLACE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL
STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, ONLY MAKING FOR THE UPPER 40S AND MAYBE
JUST BREAKING 50 AT THE WARMEST SITES, BUT THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THE RIDGING WHICH BUILDS IN TODAY WILL PUSH OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. BEFORE
THIS NEW IMPULSE BRINGS A CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING PATTERN, WE WILL
SEE ONE MORE MORNING OF SUB-FREEZING OR JUST-BARELY-ABOVE-FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A WARMER AFTERNOON OF 50S AND SOME
LOWER 60S. THAT TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL START TO KICK UP SOME SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY, MAYBE JUST BEFORE SUNSET AT THE EARLIEST, BUT
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
RAINFALL LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AS OF THIS WRITING, THAT REMAINS THE EXTENT OF THE WEATHER'S
ORGANIZATION.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT BY MID TO LATE IN THE
WEEK, WHILE ALLOWING A FOLLOW-UP IMPULSE TO SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THURSDAY. THIS DRIVING FORCE WILL KICK UP
RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE THE AREA HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
DRY OUT FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAIN, BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTH, AND DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
DAY, CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNSET. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING PATTERN, WITH
MORE SITES AIMING FOR THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN 70S ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A BRIEF DENT IN THE WARMING PATTERN,
RETURNING LOWS TO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. BUT BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO THE ZONAL
ALOFT/SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PATTERN, AND WITH IT, THE HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LONG RANGE SIGNS CURRENTLY POINTING TO THIS ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUING FOR THE HOLIDAYS.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING ARCTIC AIR MASS. OUR E/NE WILL BE 5KT AND SLACK AND VEER
OVERNIGHT TO CALM OR LIGHT SE. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE S 5-10KT.
SOME CIRRUS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT MAY BECOME BROKEN AND SCT MIDDECK
COULD BRING A VFR CIG TOO LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE. OUTLOOK, IS FOR
ANOTHER FROPA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TUES-THURS.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 34 58 48 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 46 27 54 41 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 47 27 53 40 / 0 0 10 20
TXK 48 32 56 45 / 0 0 10 30
ELD 47 26 52 39 / 0 0 0 30
TYR 50 37 59 51 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 50 32 58 47 / 0 0 10 30
LFK 51 32 60 48 / 0 0 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...24
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