975
FXUS64 KSHV 161728
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE STORMS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TOMORROW, COMING TO AN END
BY THURSDAY EVENING.
- MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AS OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES,
TAKING HIGHS INTO THE 60S TOMORROW AND LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK RETURN TO THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
BY LATE TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWED FOR A
QUIET START TO THIS WEEK WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SWEEPS IN TO TAKE
ITS PLACE AND KICK UP SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE, STARTING ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS RAINFALL, WHICH LOOKS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT
CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW MORNING, DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50
DEGREES SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WEEK'S WARMING TREND, DRIVEN BY THE
SAME SOUTHERLY FLOW FUNNELING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WILL
CONTINUE AS MORE SITES AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER 70S RETURNING THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO SWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THURSDAY. THIS DRIVING FORCE WILL KICK UP
RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE THE AREA HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
DRY OUT FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAIN, BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTH, AND DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND WHILE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION AS OF THIS WRITING,
THAT REMAINS THE EXTENT OF THE WEATHER'S ORGANIZATION.
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A BRIEF DENT IN THE WARMING PATTERN,
RETURNING LOWS TO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. BUT AFTER THIS WEEK'S TROUGHS ARE DONE WITH THE
ARKLATEX, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AND THIS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR A RETURN
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING PATTERN. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE RIGHT
BACK TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S, WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVEN AMPLIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LONG RANGE SIGNS
CURRENTLY POINTING TO THIS ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH
THE HOLIDAYS.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR THE 16/12Z TAF UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING OVC SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS START
TO TAKE OVER MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 49 62 56 71 / 40 40 20 30
MLU 43 60 52 70 / 30 30 10 60
DEQ 42 58 51 65 / 20 20 50 40
TXK 47 60 55 67 / 40 30 50 50
ELD 41 57 50 66 / 50 30 30 70
TYR 52 64 59 69 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 49 63 56 70 / 30 30 30 20
LFK 49 64 56 73 / 40 50 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33
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