026
FXUS64 KSHV 162327
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE STORMS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TOMORROW, COMING TO AN END
BY THURSDAY EVENING.
- MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AS OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES,
TAKING HIGHS INTO THE 60S TOMORROW AND LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK RETURN TO THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
BY LATE TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WHICH ALLOWED FOR A
QUIET START TO THIS WEEK WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SWEEPS IN TO TAKE
ITS PLACE AND KICK UP SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE, STARTING ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TODAY WILL THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF THIS RAINFALL, WHICH LOOKS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IT
CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW MORNING, DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UNDER INCREASED CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50
DEGREES SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WEEK'S WARMING TREND, DRIVEN BY THE
SAME SOUTHERLY FLOW FUNNELING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WILL
CONTINUE AS MORE SITES AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER 70S RETURNING THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO SWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THURSDAY. THIS DRIVING FORCE WILL KICK UP
RENEWED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE THE AREA HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
DRY OUT FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAIN, BEGINNING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTH, AND DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND WHILE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION AS OF THIS WRITING,
THAT REMAINS THE EXTENT OF THE WEATHER'S ORGANIZATION.
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A BRIEF DENT IN THE WARMING PATTERN,
RETURNING LOWS TO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. BUT AFTER THIS WEEK'S TROUGHS ARE DONE WITH THE
ARKLATEX, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AND THIS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR A RETURN
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING PATTERN. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE RIGHT
BACK TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S, WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVEN AMPLIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LONG RANGE SIGNS
CURRENTLY POINTING TO THIS ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH
THE HOLIDAYS.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR 17/00Z TAFS, VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING TO BECOME MVFR/IFR
AFTER 17/06Z WITH -RA/DZ INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR LFK IN THE AFTERNOON AND VCSH
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 49 62 56 71 / 40 40 20 30
MLU 43 60 52 70 / 30 30 10 60
DEQ 42 58 51 65 / 20 20 50 40
TXK 47 60 55 67 / 40 30 50 50
ELD 41 57 50 66 / 50 30 30 70
TYR 52 64 59 69 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 49 63 56 70 / 30 30 30 20
LFK 49 64 56 73 / 40 50 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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