922
FXUS64 KSHV 170429
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE STORMS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TOMORROW, COMING TO AN END
BY THURSDAY EVENING.
- OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK RETURN TO THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND HAS
MOVED ON TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS RAIN IS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE RAIN, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TONIGHT RELATIVELY WARM IN THE 40S.
AS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERS EAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE GONE, A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. THE CONSISTENT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO HAVE EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. FORTUNATELY, MANY OTHER MARKERS FOR SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SEEM TO BE LACKING, MAKING SEVERE WEATHER LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT, TAKING THE CLOUD COVER WITH IT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS BENIGN, WITH ZONAL FLOW
RETURNING ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
BRIEFLY INTO THE 60S BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES THE WARMING
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN MID 70S
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH ALIGNS WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS
OF A WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE CHRISTMAS WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT THIS
YEAR.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR 17/06Z TAFS, CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
MVFR/IFR WITH -RA/DZ INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR LFK IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY VCSH
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND CEILINGS MVFR/IFR AFTER 18/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 49 62 56 71 / 40 40 20 30
MLU 43 60 52 70 / 30 30 10 60
DEQ 42 58 51 65 / 20 20 50 40
TXK 47 60 55 67 / 40 30 50 50
ELD 41 57 50 66 / 50 30 30 70
TYR 52 64 59 69 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 49 63 56 70 / 30 30 30 20
LFK 49 64 56 73 / 40 50 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05
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