530
FXUS64 KSHV 180009 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRAVEL CONCERN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE THE LOW BEAM SETTING ON
HEADLIGHTS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
- MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TOMORROW BEFORE A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX, TAKING WITH IT THE SHOWERS WHICH HAVE MADE FOR
A SOGGY WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE BREAK FROM RAINFALL
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
SHORTWAVE GETTING ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST, EXTENDING DOWN THE PLAINS AND SWINGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS "ONE-TWO PUNCH" OF FORCING MECHANISMS MEANS THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL BARELY HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OFF FROM TODAY'S RAINS
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE DRY AREAWIDE, BUT BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER, SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO OUR NORTHWEST QUADRANT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-30, GRADUALLY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT LOOKING TO
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A SOUTHWARD PUSH, AFFECTING OUR ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS, BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION COMPLETELY AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT WITH THESE PRECIP IMPACTS,
BUT AS OF THIS WRITING, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY ARE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT OF LOWS FALLING
ONLY INTO THE 50S TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY BUT WARM START TO
THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH AND LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH THOSE
WARMEST VALUES BEING ACHIEVED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, WHICH
MAY COME AS SOON AS EARLY AFTERNOON FOR OUR NORTHWESTERNMOST ZONES.
AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD, SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
PIVOT AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A VERY BRIEF DENT IN THE RECENT
WARMING PATTERN, RETURNING LOWS TO THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. BUT AFTER THIS WEEK'S SYSTEMS ARE DONE
WITH THE ARKLATEX, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AND
THIS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR
A RETURN TO THE WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. AT THIS POINT, GUIDANCE HINTS AT A WEAK
SYSTEM BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH
TO UPPER 60S SOUTH, AND A FEW LOWER END CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST. WHETHER THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RESOLVE ITSELF IN FORTHCOMING
MODEL RUNS, MONDAY LOOKS TO GET RIGHT BACK ON TRACK WITH THE WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGHS SPIKING BACK INTO THE 70S, WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE HOLIDAYS.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXPECTING LOTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ENSURE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUILDING
IN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE
AND RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MANY AREAS (ESPECIALLY
TXK/SHV/ELD/LFK/MLU) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TOMORROW AND THE LATEST TAFS REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING. EXPECT
VERY LOW CLOUDS (LIFR AND VLIFR) AND FOG TO BE SLOWER TO LIFT
TOMORROW IN EASTERN ZONES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST CLEARING OUT AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST IN EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
(AND PERHAPS A STRAY STORM) WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE MUCH LARGER IMPACT TO AVIATION CONCERNS
SHOULD BE THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER TOMORROW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 73 41 61 / 10 20 0 0
MLU 51 70 39 57 / 10 50 10 0
DEQ 51 65 32 56 / 40 50 0 0
TXK 55 69 37 58 / 20 50 0 0
ELD 50 66 35 56 / 10 50 0 0
TYR 58 70 38 62 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 56 71 38 61 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 55 74 40 64 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...50
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