213
FXUS64 KSHV 180454
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1054 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRAVEL CONCERN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE THE LOW BEAM SETTING ON
HEADLIGHTS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
- MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 70S BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE ARK-
LA-TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
COOL SOIL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
PERSISTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AREAS IN THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LA HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTING LOWERING VISIBILITES OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
SINCE FOG PATCHES CAN CATCH DRIVERS BY SURPRISE.
AS THE FOG CLEARS THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO OUR
NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FEW AREAS OF INSTABILITY THAT WOULD
BE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP FURTHER EAST, MAKING
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR THE ARK-LA-TX. THE PERSISTANT
WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BRIEF KNOCK BACK AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME NORTHERN ZONES FLIRTING WITH FREEZING AGAIN, BEFORE CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER WHICH,
THE ZONAL FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE BACK
OVER AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE ELEMENT OF INTEREST IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A LOW-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK
OF CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD THIS FORECAST VERIFY. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING AND MONITORING FOR ANY IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS
AND TRAVEL. AS IT STANDS NOW, THIS RAIN WOULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS RAIN WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING, LIKELY INTO THE 50S OR 60S. OTHER AREAS
WOULD LIKELY STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR 70S.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE MODEL ESTIMATES HAVE
CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT. THE BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE QUIET CHRISTMAS FORECAST, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXPECTING LOTS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES WITH RESPECT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ENSURE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUILDING
IN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE
AND RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MANY AREAS (ESPECIALLY
TXK/SHV/ELD/LFK/MLU) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
TOMORROW AND THE LATEST TAFS REFLECT THIS LINE OF THINKING. EXPECT
VERY LOW CLOUDS (LIFR AND VLIFR) AND FOG TO BE SLOWER TO LIFT
TOMORROW IN EASTERN ZONES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST CLEARING OUT AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST IN EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
(AND PERHAPS A STRAY STORM) WILL BE FOUND TOMORROW ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, BUT THE MUCH LARGER IMPACT TO AVIATION CONCERNS
SHOULD BE THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER TOMORROW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 73 41 61 / 10 20 0 0
MLU 52 70 39 57 / 10 50 10 0
DEQ 52 65 32 56 / 50 50 0 0
TXK 55 69 37 58 / 20 40 0 0
ELD 52 66 35 56 / 10 50 0 0
TYR 58 70 38 62 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 56 71 38 61 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 56 74 40 64 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-
138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...50
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