766
FXUS64 KSHV 181125
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRAVEL CONCERN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE THE LOW BEAM SETTING ON
HEADLIGHTS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
- MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 70S BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE ARK-
LA-TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9AM THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY
COOL SOIL TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
PERSISTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AREAS IN THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LA HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTING LOWERING VISIBILITES OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
SINCE FOG PATCHES CAN CATCH DRIVERS BY SURPRISE.
AS THE FOG CLEARS THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO OUR
NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FEW AREAS OF INSTABILITY THAT WOULD
BE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP FURTHER EAST, MAKING
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR THE ARK-LA-TX. THE PERSISTANT
WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BRIEF KNOCK BACK AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOME NORTHERN ZONES FLIRTING WITH FREEZING AGAIN, BEFORE CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER WHICH,
THE ZONAL FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL TAKE BACK
OVER AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONE ELEMENT OF INTEREST IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST IS A LOW-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK
OF CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD THIS FORECAST VERIFY. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING AND MONITORING FOR ANY IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS
AND TRAVEL. AS IT STANDS NOW, THIS RAIN WOULD LINGER IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS RAIN WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES IN
THESE AREAS DOWN A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING, LIKELY INTO THE 50S OR 60S. OTHER AREAS
WOULD LIKELY STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR 70S.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE MODEL ESTIMATES HAVE
CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH NO RAIN IN SIGHT. THE BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE QUIET CHRISTMAS FORECAST, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR TWEAKS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
FOR THE 18/12Z TAF UPDATE...CEILINGS REMAIN LESS THAN 1K FT FOR
ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED SOME THIS
MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS RETURNING TO P6SM. HANGING ONTO THE
DENSE FOG FOR JUST A LITTLE LONGER THOUGH ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE WE DON'T NEED IT AREA WIDE FOR
MUCH LONGER. EXPECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE SUB-VFR
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, SLOWLY IMPROVING BY THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 18/20Z. MAINTAINED SOME MENTION
OF VCSH FOR KSHV, KMLU, KTXK, AND KELD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY THIS AFTERNOON. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 40 60 45 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 69 38 57 40 / 40 0 0 0
DEQ 66 31 56 37 / 50 0 0 0
TXK 69 36 59 44 / 40 0 0 0
ELD 66 34 55 39 / 50 0 0 0
TYR 70 37 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 71 37 61 45 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 73 39 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ097-112-
126-138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...33
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