404
FXUS64 KSHV 181819
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY, DELIVERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEHIND THE FRONT.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE APPROACHING HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, SCATTERED SHOWERS, BROUGHT ABOUT BY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUITE LIGHT WITH
THESE SHOWERS, AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL AVOID RAIN ALTOGETHER.
THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 3-4 PM, WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES THE REGION, NEAR AVERAGE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S COMMON
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A QUICK WARMUP TO THE 70S WILL
ENSUE SATURDAY AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTRUBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RETREAT TO THE 60S, BEFORE A BONA FIDE LATE DECEMBER
WARM SPELL ARRIVES TO START CHRISTMAS WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
CONUS WILL FACILITATE A STEADY DAY TO TO DAY TEMPERATURE CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S
EACH DAY, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH LOWS AREAWIDE MANAGING TO
DIP ONLY INTO THE 50S EACH MORNING. WITH FIRM RIDGING IN PLACE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CHRISTMAS WEEK
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEAR A KFSM-KPRX-KACT LINE AT 18Z WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SHV FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN
TEXAS AT PRESENT, BUT CLOUD BASES ARE EXHIBITING A STEADY
IMPROVEMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WEAK FORCING ALOFT IS
INDUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANASA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AT 18Z, BY COVERAGE IS MARGINAL, AND
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE VCSH WORDING AT KELD THROUGH THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY
21Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMLU, WHICH WILL LINGER HIGH MVFR
BROKEN CONDITIONS UNTIL THE 23-00Z TIMEFRAME. AS DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM AROUND 21Z THROUGH 03Z.
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 8-12
KNOTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY, WIND SPEEDS
ON THE ORDER OF 12-14 KNOTS, GUSTING AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 20
KNOTS, WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TAF SITE AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING,
YIELDING LIGHT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 4-7 KNOTS FROM 09Z ON THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 40 60 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 38 57 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 31 56 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 36 59 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 55 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 37 62 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 37 61 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 39 63 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRADSHAW/FWD
AVIATION...BRADSHAW/FWD
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