016
FXUS64 KSHV 021215
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE REGION STAYING DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND GRADUALLY INCREASES TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD BE FROM A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT BACK SOME
WARMTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR OUTER AREAS ON THE WAY THROUGH. THE REST OF
THE ARK-LA-TX SHOULD STAY DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FREE
FROM RAIN BUT BRING A NW WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AND
GRADUALLY WARM AGAIN AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
ORIENTATION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER DRY SERIES OF DAYS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL STRETCH INTO MID NEXT WEEK UNTIL IT IS BROKEN BY A DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE TAKING THIS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT, THE
ARK-LA-TX COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN, STAY AWARE OF LOCAL GUIDANCE SURROUNDING OUTDOOR BURNING AND
FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER COULD INCREASE IN THE MEANTIME.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FOR THE 02/12Z TAF PERIOD, SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LARGELY
FOCUSED AROUND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT KLFK
AND OUR AR/LA TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BREEZY S/SW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-14 KTS ON
AVERAGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AIRSPACE, WINDS
WILL TREND MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ADDITIONAL LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS SO
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 52 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 76 52 62 41 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 68 44 63 35 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 74 49 64 40 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 72 46 59 36 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 77 49 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 78 49 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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