009
FXUS64 KSHV 021859
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON IS UNFOLDING WITH SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS
AND WE HAVE UPDATED ZONES WITH ADJUSTING UP HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A
COOLER TREND THIS WEEKEND AS SOME CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN OVERHEAD.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT SCHOOL/WORK WEEK WITH A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
NOON READINGS ARE ALL IN THE 70S EXCEPT SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH OF I-30 NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN SOME 80S
BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HANDFUL OF RECORD HIGHS MAY FALL TODAY
WITH A LITTLE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS SHIFTING THE WIND TO NE AT SULPHUR SPRINGS TX AND EXTENDS
JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FILTER ACROSS I-20 EARLY THIS EVENING AND COOL US OFF A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH A RANGE OF MID 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT
DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS RETURNING AND THE MIXING OF THE NIGHT AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL SEE FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOWS
MUCH COOLER IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S EVERYWHERE ELSE, MUCH
CLOSER TO THE EARLY JANUARY AVERAGE.
THIS 1025MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH,
BUT KEEP LIGHT NE WINDS FOR US INTO SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTING TO E/SE
BY LATE SUNDAY. SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHILLY START ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER, THE SE WINDS WILL KICK IN GEAR
EARLY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY 50S FOR LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM LOWER 70S ON MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.
SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
INCREASE DURING WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS DURING THAT
AFTERNOON. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL WESTERLIES FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK, BUT BUCKLE TO SW FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE
PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA,
BEGINS TO SPREAD PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW OF AZ/NM
AND MUCH OF MEXICO.
THIS DEEP AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING THE RAIN CLOUDS BACK
OUR WAY. THIS BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE UNTIL A SECOND
CORE LOW FALLS INTO THE PATTERN BY FRIDAY. SO THIS MEANS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IN AND OUT WET WEATHER WILL LINGER AREAWIDE FOR
US FROM THURSDAY UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW, THE WPC DAYS 4-7 QPF HAVE BETTER THAN ONE INCH TOTALS ALONG
I-30. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR LATEST D2 DROUGHT AREAS THAT WILL
LIKELY SEE EXPANSION EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING ON THE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
DURING SUNDAY, WHILE THE STILL NOT SEEN ECMWF IS DURING SATURDAY
NEXT WEEKEND. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
STILL DEALING WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AIRSPACE
IMPACTING THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS BUT THOSE CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE RISING AND/OR SCATTERING OUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF OUR AIRSPACE LOOKS GOOD WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR A
WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF IFR OR LIFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST
SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THESE VSBY LIMITATION SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY BUT THE IMPROVEMENTS WITH CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 60 41 59 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 46 62 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 64 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 58 37 57 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 50 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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