978
FXUS64 KSHV 030509
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MID NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, BRINGING SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO BE QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN AT
THIS POINT AND BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 80S ONCE AGAIN.
THE REPETITIVE FORECAST TAKES A TURN IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME, THERE ARE SEVERAL INCONSISTENCIES IN LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GENERALLY, BOTH THE EURO AND THE
GFS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATER TROUGH FOLLOWING IT ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS HAS A SLOWER PROROGATION SPEED FOR THE MAIN TROUGH COMPARED
TO THE EURO. THE EURO ALSO TAKES THE INITAL CUTOFF LOW ON MORE OUF
A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS, BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL LIKELY
RESOLVE AS TIME GOES ON. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS MAKE FLASH
AND URBAN FLOODING LOOK UNLIKELY FOR THIS EVENT, BUT IT WILL BE
MONITORED AS NEW DATA COME OUT.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THIS EVENING AND TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER FROM NE TO SW TO IFR (60 TO 80%
CHANCE) AND POTENTIALLY LIFR (30 TO 40%). A 40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MENTION IN 00Z TAF PACKAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SAT PERIOD. VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING, WITH CEILINGS SET TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK
TO BKN MVFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKY CONDITIONS TO
BECOME SCT AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR NEAR THE END OR JUST AFTER THIS
PERIOD, 04/00Z. WINDS EASING THIS EVENING OUT OF THE W/NW,
SHIFTING TO THE NE AROUND MIDNIGHT AROUND 5KTS AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10KTS SATURDAY MORNING.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 60 41 59 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 46 62 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 64 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 58 37 57 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 50 66 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...23
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