810
FXUS64 KSHV 030538
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MID NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, BRINGING SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO BE QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN AT
THIS POINT AND BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 80S ONCE AGAIN.
THE REPETITIVE FORECAST TAKES A TURN IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME, THERE ARE SEVERAL INCONSISTENCIES IN LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GENERALLY, BOTH THE EURO AND THE
GFS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATER TROUGH FOLLOWING IT ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS HAS A SLOWER PROROGATION SPEED FOR THE MAIN TROUGH COMPARED
TO THE EURO. THE EURO ALSO TAKES THE INITIAL CUTOFF LOW ON MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS, BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
LIKELY RESOLVE AS TIME GOES ON. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
MAKE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING LOOK UNLIKELY FOR THIS EVENT, BUT IT
WILL BE MONITORED AS NEW DATA COME OUT.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VSBYS. SUCH
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WITH REASONABLY
QUICK IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBYS AND A SLOWER LIFTING OF CEILINGS BACK
TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ARE STILL LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND
HIGH-END MVFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS ARE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NE
TONIGHT, AND WILL REMAIN N/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND
10KTS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 63 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 59 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 46 61 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 62 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 52 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 52 64 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...23
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