910
FXUS64 KSHV 040449
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1049 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.
- A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS BORING UNTIL A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PRE-FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A TAD IN OUR NORTH AND EASTERN
ZONES AND FOG CHANCES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A TOSS UP, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WEST. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CLOUDS STAY AT BAY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THE NAM CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE
CLOUD COVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REESTABLISH AT THIS POINT,
OFFICIALLY KICKING OFF OUR WARMING TREND AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NEARING 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO AND GFS ARE MORE ALIGNED THAN YESTERDAY AND ARE
AGREEING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL INTEGRATE BACK IN THE BROADER
TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE MODELS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LENGTHENING THE RAIN PERIOD
INTO THE WEEKEND. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE LOW FOR
THIS EVENT RIGHT NOW, WITH THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WPC
KEEPING D1-7 QPF BELOW 1 IN. BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS, THE
CONTINUED RAIN SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
60S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
STILL DEALING WITH PESKY MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF OUR TYR AND LFK
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE WESTERN FLANK WHICH REPRESENTS THE
CLEARING LINE DOES CONTINUE TO MAKE GOOD AND STEADY PROGRESS
EASTWARD BUT THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WILL THIS CLEARING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST SLOW DOWN AFTER DARK. WITH THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE, DID CONTINUE THE CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING AT THE
TXK/GGG AND SHV TERMINALS WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE MLU
AND ELD TERMINALS. WE SHOULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP ANY DENSE FOG FROM FORMING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR
VSBYS ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 43 63 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 38 60 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 36 57 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 40 59 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 57 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 63 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 43 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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