982
FXUS64 KSHV 040500
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND KICKS OFF, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MIDWEEK.
- A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WILL KEEP THINGS BORING UNTIL A
PAIR OF SYSTEMS BRING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST LATER NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PRE-FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP A TAD IN OUR NORTH AND EASTERN
ZONES AND FOG CHANCES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL A TOSS UP, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WEST. HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD THE CLOUDS STAY AT BAY.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THE NAM CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE
CLOUD COVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD REESTABLISH AT THIS POINT,
OFFICIALLY KICKING OFF OUR WARMING TREND AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
NEARING 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO AND GFS ARE MORE ALIGNED THAN YESTERDAY AND ARE
AGREEING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL INTEGRATE BACK IN THE BROADER
TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE MODELS
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE GREATER UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LENGTHENING THE RAIN PERIOD
INTO THE WEEKEND. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE LOW FOR
THIS EVENT RIGHT NOW, WITH THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND WPC
KEEPING D1-7 QPF BELOW 1 IN. BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS, THE
CONTINUED RAIN SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
60S BY NEXT SATURDAY.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE, LOW CLOUDS NEAR 3KFT THAT EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON HAD BEGUN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST HAVE STOPPED THIS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND ARE NOW CURRENTLY RETREATING BACK TO THE
WEST. LATEST 00Z NAM OUTPUT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FLOW NEAR 3KT
COMING FROM THE ENE AND THUS ALLOWING FOR A WSW MOVEMENT TO THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THUS, HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THIS
CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE TYR TERMINAL AS THIS RETROGRESSION OF THE
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS TYR. EVENTUALLY, ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR AIRSPACE ON SUNDAY AS
WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO AN EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY, SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 44 62 46 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 54 40 60 42 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 58 39 57 38 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 61 42 58 44 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 53 38 56 40 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 59 43 64 47 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 60 42 63 45 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 62 44 66 45 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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